Tough-on-crime brigade look scarce as convicts win a break from crumbling prison system

There are times when even the Tories are banged to rights. Prisons are one of them. You’d have thought Conservative MPs would have been up in arms at the government’s decision to free a second tranche of prisoners under its early release scheme little more than a month after the first. Law and order is meant to be a Tory thing. The answer to any crime – apart from inciting rioters to burn down buildings with asylum seekers in them – is to lock people up and throw away the key. Turn the whole of Milton Keynes into one vast prison estate. Bring back capital punishment.

But not this time. As the justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, prepared to give a statement to the Commons on Tuesday, there were just seven Tory backbenchers in the chamber. And none of the Reform crew. Presumably with the presidential election imminent, they have more interest in what’s going on Stateside. Or maybe Nigel Farage has finally got round to acquainting himself with Clacton. Where was all the faux outrage? Where were the temper tantrums?

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New report upgrades outlook for UK economy with growth now forecast at 1.1% rather than 0.7%

• While the IMF is upbeat about global growth it knows where dangers lurk

The International Monetary Fund has warned the trade tariffs favoured by US presidential candidate Donald Trump could hurt global growth, as it upgraded its forecast for the UK economy.

The Washington-based organisation said tariffs trigger tit-for-tat trade wars that impoverish the economies involved in the dispute and the wider global economy.

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Downing Street says government ‘shocked’ at inheriting prisons crisis as hundreds of prisoners get early release. This live blog is closed

The funeral of Alex Salmond, the former Scottish first minister who died suddenly earlier this month after delivering a speech in North Macedonia, will be held on Tuesday 29 October, his family has announced.

The funeral will be at Strichen parish church in Aberdeenshire. It will be conducted by Rev Ian McEwan, a friend of the family, and only family and close friends are invited. Salmond will be laid to rest in Strichen cemetery.

According to the Eurostat data, England and Wales had 144 prisoners per 100,000 head of population, the 8th highest rate among EU countries and the highest amongst western European jurisdictions. Scotland had the 9th highest with 137 prisoners per 100,000. Northern Ireland had 76 prisoners per 100,000 of population and was ranked 24th.

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Decision affects secondaries and primaries approved by previous government using its ‘free school’ application process

Ministers have paused plans to open 44 new state schools in England, including three sixth-form colleges backed by Eton, while they review each school’s potential demand and value for money.

The decision will affect mainstream secondary and primary schools that were approved by the previous government using its “free school” application process, introduced by Michael Gove in 2010.

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PM says he shares public’s anger but claims there would have been ‘paralysis’ if government had not acted

Beaming prisoners were greeted with hugs and kisses as they stepped out of the metal gates of HMP Manchester and into the arms of waiting friends and family after being freed under the government’s early release scheme.

By lunchtime on Tuesday, 14 prisoners had been released from the prison, known locally as Strangeways, with several confirming they had been let go early. Two said they had been serving time for drugs offences.

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Rahima Mahmut, in exile in the UK, ‘disappointed’ at failure to describe Beijing’s crackdown on minority as genocide

A leading Uyghur activist has accused the Labour government of “falling behind” its allies in failing to stand up to China, after ministers backtracked on plans to push for formal recognition of the country’s treatment of the minority group as genocide.

Speaking after David Lammy’s first visit to China as UK foreign secretary, the human rights activist Rahima Mahmut, who has lived in exile in the UK since 2000, said she had hoped there would be a shift in UK policy once the party came into power, including following the US in declaring a continuing genocide in Xinjiang.

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Energy secretary prepares new pledge for big UK carbon cuts in next decade amid potential cabinet division

Ed Miliband is facing his first key test on Labour’s ambitions for global climate leadership, with a crucial decision looming on how far and how fast to cut the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions.

The energy secretary is preparing a new international pledge for the UK to cut carbon sharply in the next decade, but could face opposition within the cabinet.

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Exclusive: Save the Children calls for pensions triple lock-style policy to protect child-related welfare spending

Rachel Reeves is facing calls to introduce a “child lock” to protect spending on child-related benefits in the autumn budget, a move campaigners say would dramatically reduce the number of children in poverty.

In a report to be shared with the Treasury and ministers this week, Save the Children has called for a guarantee that benefits for supporting children are raised each year in line with inflation or average earnings, whichever of the two figures is higher.

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Chancellor expected to promote range of infrastructure plans to boost economy, including reviving parts of HS2

Within weeks of taking the helm at the Treasury, Rachel Reeves began shelving major infrastructure projects. The termination of a road tunnel planned to run next to Stonehenge was quickly followed by the axing of an GBP800m donation towards Edinburgh university’s planned supercomputer.

A more upbeat chancellor is expected to stand at the dispatch box on 30 October to promote a budget packed with initiatives to drag the economy out of the doldrums.

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Shabana Mahmood says she wants latest emergency release amid overcrowding in England and Wales jails to be the last

The justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, has admitted the proportion of people released early from prison who are being recalled is “very high”, as the government prepares to free more inmates to relieve an overcrowding crisis.

Mahmood said figures would not yet be available for the number of prisoners who had been returned after the first wave of prison releases in September, but said it was likely they would be high.

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ONS data shows higher debt interest payments and pay awards for public sector workers pushed figure to GBP16.6bn

The UK Treasury has said it will need to take difficult decisions in next week’s budget after higher debt interest payments and pay awards for public sector workers pushed government borrowing to GBP16.6bn last month – the third highest September figure on record.

In the last update on the state of the public finances before Rachel Reeves announces her tax and spending plans next week, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK’s budget deficit was GBP2.1bn higher last month than in the same month a year earlier.

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Some are predicting sweeping changes to the levy payable on the part of estates over GBP325,000

Speculation is intensifying that next week’s budget could include sweeping changes to inheritance tax designed to raise billions of pounds.

Only about one in 20 UK estates now attract inheritance tax (IHT), but it is a topic that always arouses strong feelings. Some thinktanks say there are loopholes in the rules that allow the well-off to avoid paying their fair share and which need to be closed, while others such as the TaxPayers’ Alliance have urged Rachel Reeves to rule out increasing this “hated death tax”.

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Move could raise GBP24bn a year say signatories including Jeremy Corbyn as polls suggest public support

A cross-party group of 30 MPs has urged Rachel Reeves to impose a wealth tax on Britain’s rich in next week’s budget rather than announce spending cuts that would hit the most poor hardest.

In a letter to the chancellor, the MPs – including the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and his then shadow chancellor, John McDonnell – say she could raise GBP24bn a year from a 2% tax on wealth above GBP10m and lay the foundations for a fairer, more sustainable economy.

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The Conservatives believe that they uniquely represent British values – so what need is there to admit the UK is changing?

Why exactly are the Conservatives so upbeat, barely three months after their worst-ever election defeat? At their party conference, in their leadership contest and in the Tory press, the mood has been unexpectedly positive, even unrepentant, with relatively few recriminations and little deep reflection. During the conference, I lost count of how often people told me the party would be back in power within a few years.

There are some straightforward explanations: Labour’s troubles trying to run the country; Tory relief that they have been given a break from that difficult task; the displacement activity of the leadership contest; and the fact that the grind of opposition has not properly begun yet – all these are making being out of office easier than many Tories feared during the long run-up to the election.

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The Tory leadership hopeful believes that if he shouts the same things a bit louder, everyone will eventually come round to his way of thinking

You can only conclude that some politicians are simply untreatable. Their egotism and self-delusion so deeply engrained that reality never gets a look-in. I give you Robert Jenrick. Exhibit A. He is a worthy successor to Liz Truss as one of the dimmest solipsists you could hope to meet.

After trailing in a distant second in last week’s televised Q&A, you’d have thought Honest Bob might have taken a day or two to regroup. After all, if the most Tory-friendly audience imaginable at GB News doesn’t much like you then most people would reasonably conclude they had a problem. If you can’t connect with the few remaining diehard Tory members, then your chances of appealing to the rest of the country are vanishingly small.

Taking the Lead by John Crace is published by Little, Brown (GBP18.99). To support the Guardian and Observer, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.

A year in Westminster: John Crace, Marina Hyde and Pippa Crerar. On 3 December, join Crace, Hyde and Crerar as they look back at a political year like no other, live at Barbican in London and livestreamed globally. Book tickets here or at guardian.live.

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London’s award-winning Elizabeth line is an example of what can be achieved. Labour needs to deliver the same ambition elsewhere

When London’s new 73-mile Elizabeth line won the prestigious Stirling prize for architecture last week, the judges’ choice proved a popular one. Spacious, fast and pleasing on the eye, the east-west addition to the capital’s underground network is a triumphant example of modern civic infrastructure. As this newspaper’s architecture and design critic put it, here was proof positive that “Britain is still capable of pulling off gargantuan transport infrastructure projects with style and panache”.

Sadly, beyond the south-east – and particularly in the north – such feelgood moments have been notable by their absence. Ten years after George Osborne’s northern powerhouse agenda promised upgraded rail links across the north of England, travellers in Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds are still waiting on the platform for that new era to arrive. During that time, spending per capita on transport in London has been more than double that in the north. A dizzying series of Westminster policy delays, cancellations and U-turns have cumulatively undermined investor confidence and passenger morale from Liverpool to Leeds.

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

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It is staggering that the then home secretary racked up such a massive bill. But perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised, given the GBP700m cost of the Rwanda scheme

It already feels like quite a long time since the Tories were in power, but it was only in December that James Cleverly took a day trip to Rwanda to sign a deportation deal that, given the supreme court had ruled against it, was dead in the water anyway. One shouldn’t use that phrase without pausing to note how many migrants have actually died in the water while trying to cross the Channel – at least 53 so far this year, making 2024 the deadliest year on record. Everything about the Conservative stance on immigration, from its dehumanising rhetoric to the way it weaponised loss of life to whip up fury about small boats, was disgusting.

But the Rwanda plan was the standout insult – and the details of Cleverly’s trip make that point more keenly than all the context we already knew. For a start, it was pointless, because it was never going to happen. The GBP165,561 he spent chartering a private jet may sound like peanuts, set against the estimated GBP700m the scheme cost overall, which included payments to the Rwandan government, chartering flights for asylum seekers that never took off, detaining people then releasing them, the salaries of the 1,000 civil servants who worked on the policy, and Cleverly’s trip itself, of which GBP9,803.20 went on catering.

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.

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My treatment showed me the brilliance and failings of England’s health service. But it is in crisis and government can’t tackle that alone

When I was diagnosed with kidney cancer, in 2021, the NHS saved my life. I felt this Rolls-Royce machine kick into gear, as I was treated by a world-class surgeon equipped with a robot and looked after by a group of incredibly caring nurses. I saw the best of the NHS.

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Is there any point to self-imposed restraints if they’re often broken? The chancellor should adopt a more transparent approach

The former Labour chancellor Denis Healey famously quipped that the first law of politics is “ when you’re in a hole, stop digging”. That advice might serve Rachel Reeves well as she prepares to present her first budget later this month. Leaks suggest the process isn’t going smoothly. Ms Reeves faces backlash from both sides: cabinet ministers on the left are outraged by looming budget cuts, while Conservatives on the right accuse her of breaking a manifesto promise not to raise employers’ national insurance. Her fiscal strategy is at the heart of the criticism. Ms Reeves has promised “no return to austerity”, yet her fiscal rules seem to point to either tax increases or stealth cuts to departmental budgets. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) thinks the chancellor needs GBP25bn a year. The economy is improving. But there is little alternative to tax rises. The pandemic has shrunk the number of workers, reducing the slack in the economy and limiting government room to “pay for” its spending through printing money.

There is also a broader issue of fairness and efficiency. Raising taxes could help the government curb wasteful spending, while targeting the wealthy could reduce environmentally damaging practices, like private jet use. This would free up resources for crucial investments in infrastructure or boosting the purchasing power of public sector workers. Yet, Ms Reeves has still to provide a clear, cohesive message on taxation, leaving the public uncertain about her intentions.

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A debate as vital as assisted dying shouldn’t rely on one MP and Starmer’s pledge to Esther Rantzen. Is the way to address big issues the model used in Ireland?

No one really saw it coming, but here we are, in the midst of what passes for a watershed debate about assisted dying, centred on the Labour MP Kim Leadbeater’s terminally ill adults (end of life) bill, and the huge moral and practical questions that swirl around it.

The weekend’s news has been full of the views of people who can speak loudly enough to be heard: three former directors of public prosecutions (all in favour), a former archbishop of Canterbury (ditto) and the healthcare professionals grouped into the Association for Palliative Medicine (against, because legislating to allow assisted dying risks ignoring “the lack of adequately funded specialist palliative care services”).

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The Tory leadership contender’s assertion that the last book he read was A Tale of Two Cities is open to several interpretations

Last weekend, in answer to the question “What was the last book you read?”, Tory leadership contender Robert Jenrick said A Tale of Two Cities. Lots to unpack there. First, some context: it was in the “quickfire questions” section of an interview in the Daily Mail, among the readers of which there may be one or two members of the Conservative party. Possibly even more. So, as a politics professional, Jenrick will have been focused on coming across well to them.

It’s tricky for him, though, because that’s not the same thing as coming across well in general. It’s not the wider public he’s courting. Nor even Tory voters. No, he has to appeal to a constituency of people who make those who merely vote Conservative seem like hand-wringing woke hipsters. This is a group that, only two years ago, confidently selected Liz Truss to be prime minister. Admittedly the only other item on the menu was Rishi Sunak, but that still looks like a perverse choice to anyone sensible. Sunak has many detractors but there’s only one of them who thinks Liz Truss was a better prime minister than him and that person’s name is Liz Truss.

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Labour nerves are jangling in advance of the most significant event since the election

I have now heard so many Labour people quiver that Rachel Reeves’ looming budget is a “make or break” event that I’ve given up counting. Whether or not it will deserve such hyperbolic billing, it is certainly true that the first Labour budget in 14 years is the most significant moment since the election, both for the chancellor’s reputation and the standing of the government as a whole. When Ms Reeves gets up before the Commons on 30 October, she will do so accompanied by a great weight of expectation.

“It’s massive,” says one member of the cabinet. “Hugely important,” agrees another. “It sets the course for the rest of the parliament.” A third senior minister describes it as “a milestone budget” with “several big jobs to do”. The first is to clear the decks of the dire fiscal legacy left by the Tories. The second is to do what she can for dilapidated public services. The third challenge, the most critical for the long term, is to change the arc of Britain’s story by putting the country on a trajectory towards higher growth. No pressure then, chancellor.

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George Carey is wrong to reduce the bill to a simple question of right or wrong

There is perhaps nothing more 2020s than taking a sensitive, morally fraught issue loaded with complexity and nuance, and casting it as progress and kindness versus indifference and obdurate conservatism. When even senior members of the clergy fall into this trap, it is a sign of just how much social media has collapsed public discourse into a simple question of right or wrong.

The debate about assisted dying has become depressingly reductionist, but I was still taken aback when the former archbishop of Canterbury George Carey last week chose to mirror its flaws rather than adopt a more careful tone. He urged bishops in the House of Lords to back Labour MP Kim Leadbeater’s private member’s bill to legalise assisted dying because it is “necessary, compassionate and principled”, saying: “The sad history of scientific exploration… is that church leaders have often shamefully resisted change. Let’s not follow that trend.” He implied that bishops had a duty to reflect the “vast majority” of Anglicans who support legalisation.

Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 250 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at observer.letters@observer.co.uk

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Uproar at Treasury demands for departmental savings was overcome last week, but insiders fear benefit cuts will be the next bump in the road

As hard as it is to describe the frenzy that gripped Whitehall on Wednesday evening, as officials and ministers began to realise the potential ­economic pain that could be inflicted on their departments in just a few days’ time, it has not stopped some involved from trying. “A mess,” was the verdict of one Labour figure. Another opted for “chaos”. A third was more brutal still: “Carnage.”

For a few incendiary hours that night, angry and ­disbelieving messages flew around Westminster as ministerial teams reacted to demands meted out by the Treasury – namely, to find significant savings in their departments by the end of the day. The wails led to direct appeals to Keir Starmer, which were soon rebuffed.

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Democracy is in the balance as Americans prepare to go to the polls

• You can order your own copy of this cartoon

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The chancellor rightly wants to stimulate the economy by boosting growth. But she would be unwise to do it at the expense of the poorest

There is a danger that Labour will suffer the Macron effect when the budget is unveiled at the end of the month. Emmanuel Macron, who was first elected president of France in 2017, put business investment and building a culture of entrepreneurialism at the top of his to-do list – only to be condemned later as a friend of the rich.

Rachel Reeves speaks a similar language when she says economic growth is her priority and that business people should be offered more support than even the Tories were prepared to countenance.

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Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick took questions from Conservative party members on Thursday night

• Badenoch and Jenrick spar over visions for future of Tory party in TV debate

Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick have faced off for what could be the only televised clash of the Conservative leadership contest. It was not actually a debate: the pair took it in turns to take questions from party members and GB News viewers.

Below are some of the things we learned.

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